2016 Drink Trend Predictions

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For many years, I’ve occupied two worlds: not only have I been behind the bar full-time for the past 20 years, but also I’ve been writing about it for well over a decade. People like myself, who not only publish their thoughts on spirits and cocktails but also work behind the bar on a daily basis, are normally inundated this time of year with requests for speculation about what will be trending behind the bar in the coming year. And, as anyone who knows me can attest, I have some pretty strong feelings about all things bar-related. So here are my predictions.

Cocktails that you can actually Drink

Contrary to what many trendy bar programs are pushing, I have always considered it to be a massive failure when a bar is full of people sitting around smelling their cocktails and quietly posting them to Instagram. That sort of deep reverence for the liquid gold found in the glass screams failure to me, as the true sign of a healthy bar is the sort of place where people are talking, laughing, and enjoying themselves first, and paying attention to the nuanced aromas of their cocktails last. Cocktails that people can drink really help create that sort of atmosphere and as a decades-long veteran of the business; I can assure you that the vast majority of guests enjoy cocktails they can actually drink.

Drinks People Love to Hate

I’ve gotten a lot of praise and a fair amount of criticism for the way I’ve embraced so-called ‘terrible’ drinks over the past few years. The Grasshopper, the Amaretto Sour, and the Blue Hawaiian are all extremely popular in my bar. But the reason we champion these drinks isn’t simply because we enjoy being anachronistic. It’s because we firmly believe that there are no bad drinks, only bad bartenders. And as more of us take up the cause of redeeming all cocktails, not just those pre-Prohibition classics we all know and love, it’s going to be harder and harder to defend the stance that a certain style of drink is no good. Especially when there’s a bar down the block turning out craft Strawberry Daiquiris to an eager crowd.

More Flavored Whiskies

Speaking of terrible drinks, here’s one we can probably all agree to dislike, though there’s nothing we can do about it. Some of you might remember the 1990s and easy 2000s, when there was a new vodka on the shelf every week. Well, the marketing machine has officially moved off of vodka and onto the very spirit we all worked so hard to re-popularise: whiskey. We’re already seeing overly expensive ‘craft’ whiskies, all sorts of flavored whiskies, and we’re only going to see more of this. Education is going to be paramount, because the consumer is about to become very ill-informed by every brand seeking to make a buck. Sure, when this dies out we’ll be left with a handful of decent options and about a hundred that didn’t make the cut, but that will be driven by consumers, not bartenders.

Less Gimmicky Vodkas

There is an upside to spirits companies putting all of their energy into terrorizing whiskey, and we can safely predict a return to well-made, flavorful (though less ‘flavored’) vodkas. Let’s face it: none of us who know what we’re talking about ever hated vodka, we just hated hearing and having to talk about vodka all the time. There are fewer pleasures greater than a frozen glass full of ice-cold, rich, creamy vodka placed between yourself and a towering Olympus of chilled shellfish. I know it, you know it, and your guests know it. Welcome back, vodka.

Fun Bars

We’ve been hearing this one for years now, from bartenders all over the globe. “I just want to open up a dive bar with good cocktails.” Am I right? The fault in this idea is that it continues to polarise bars as one of two possibilities: dive bars, and bars with good drinks. But there are so many other types of bar out there, and your average cocktail bar seems to think that any place that doesn’t stock twenty different amari is a ‘dive’. As someone who worked in a dive when getting started in the business, let me inform you that a true dive is a terrifying, unsafe, horrid place to work. What’s really on the horizon is a more relaxed atmosphere with a return to entertainment, games, and music. Look at Prizefighter in Oakland, California. Look at Good Times at Davey Wayne’s in LA. Look at the Tiki craze. People are getting tired of walking into dark recreations of Prohibition-era saloons. Drinks have always been about fun, and the tide is turning: pretending it’s 1922 isn’t fun anymore. You’re going to see more juke boxes, more bowling lanes, more shuffleboard tables, more music. A nice game of pool with a Belgian beer in hand and Zeppelin on the jukebox shouldn’t be that hard to find. And we’re not talking about the sort of pitted, slanted, felt-torn pool table you’d find in a “dive”.

Fast Casual

We’ve already seen a dining revolution in the fast casual model, and I have a strong suspicion that we’ll be seeing a similar pattern in the bar business. The current system of $16 cocktails that help pay for two hosts at the door, a team of educated cocktail servers, and the other sorts of amenities that are the trappings of a fancy cocktail bar isn’t going to last forever. We’re now seeing an order-at-the-bar model that does away with all of the formality that has crept in during recent years, and these sorts of places are packed on a nightly basis.

Because at the end of the day, a good cocktail, a delicious spirit, and a solid bar shouldn’t solely be reserved for special occasions or date nights. These things have always been, and should always be, accessible to everyone. And accessibility has always been a trend that will never go away.

20 Replies to “2016 Drink Trend Predictions”

  • Greg says:

    My hope for the big new trend in 2016 and beyond is for the average restaurant bar to do 3 things:

    Know when to stir a cocktail.

    Use fresh juice.

    Use a jigger instead of free pouring.

    These three things are really just saying “Make the cocktail correctly with the proper ingredients in the proper ratios.” In other words FOLLOW THE RECIPE!. I’m really tired of getting shaken Manhattans and Gin Sours which are equal parts Gin and sour mix poured into a mason jar full of ice.

  • doctorx0079 says:

    Curacao can be a product with refinement, just as triple sec can. BTW COINTREAU IS TRIPLE SEC. I hate it when people act like it’s not triple sec. Triple sec does not have to be syrupy-sweet, just because you like it that way.

  • Weston Herman says:

    Hello All,
    I am going to Manhattan for some R and R and R and R and D. Suggestions for a good small independent Bar?

  • Weston Herman says:

    I have never considered this liquor to be of the refined nature, it’s just triple sec with food coloring is it not? If cointreau was an American product they would make a blue vesion of it 🙂

  • doctorx0079 says:

    My weird question might not be answered in this old thread, but it is sort of relevant, so here goes: What blue curacao do you use for a Blue Hawaiian or Blue Hawaii? Please don’t tell me Dekuyper or Hiram Walker. I’m about ready to try Bols myself. Seems like the world standard, more or less. Some say Senior Curacao of Curacao tastes better, but it’s hard to get around here.

  • Weston Herman says:

    Thank you for the post Jeffery, I am a fan of yours and am growing tired of the 20 something self important bartender. There is a element of serving someone that I enjoy and am proud of doing well. I am sick of waiting for my drink for twenty minutes because “fresh chipped ice makes a better drink”. This may be true,I kind of doubt it, but don’t use your bare hands to chip the ice!These kids don’t care that I have been doing a better job than them since before they were born. I was brewing brew 28 years ago. Sorry to rattle on, You have a great “bullshit Bouncer” Jeffery,Keep it up!

  • Addison says:

    I don’t think “genius” is too strong of a word to use here, Jeff. I know I’ve said it before, but I think it’s worth repeating… You’re a genius Mr. Morganthaler. Keep up the work. Cheers!

  • Logan says:

    In regards to the last point, the best place place for my wife and I to get a well made cocktail in the western Chicago suburbs where we live is at a burger place (Burger Antics). It’s definitely fast-casual, but the cocktails are made with care, intentionality, and solid ingredients. Price runs around $10 for most cocktails. To add evidence to your prediction, the place is in fact always packed.

  • Wine Harlots says:


    Prizefighter is actually in Emeryville.

    All the best,


  • Mel says:

    Amaretto sour is one of my fav drinks and I’m not ashamed to admit it. 🙂

  • Kevin says:

    I’ve been thinking about opening up a cocktail bar with just good fresh drinks, casual atmosphere, and a fast casual service process. I went to a semi-fast casual restaurant called Good Bird in Longmont that has cocktails and it just reminded me that it can work.

    I did the whole fast casual thing as a manager of a 70k/week restaurant so I know all the benefits of it, and it’s what I am familiar with.

    Glad to see you agree!

  • Jeff says:

    I would love to see a place where I could get quality drinks without the fancy trappings and prices to support them. It hasn’t caught on yet in Seattle.

  • johnny says:

    It’s called SHUFFLE PUCK!!!!

    Shuffle Board is on cruise ships played by bougie types in wicker hats and victorian dresses.

    Shuffle puck requires skill and sand to throw in your opponents eyes. And a beer in your off hand like any great dive bar game.

  • Paul Reverie says:

    First, thank you for your articles; I thoroughly enjoy them and take something away from each one. Do you see draft cocktails as a new trend?

  • Todd DeWoody says:

    Thanks Jeffrey for saying what some people are too afraid to say, Brock I fully agree with you and look forward to seeing the self made genius bartender hacks fade away…

  • Todd Wagner says:

    Love the new post JM!! I totally agree, bars don’t have to choose between fancy or dive. Any style of bar can serve good drinks if they have quality ingredients, proper technique, and a dedicated staff. Love the Prizefighter example. Hotsy Totsy down the road in Albany is other gem.

  • Chris says:

    Thanks for your knowledge, insight and perspective Jeffrey. I’ve always enjoyed the honesty and humbleness of your writings. Keep it up.

  • Mary DeBattista says:

    Brock…yes! I have been proudly tending bar for 35 years, and the newbies who sit at my bar and watch me work and critique me while rolling eyes at the amaretto sour I have been requested to make can kiss my lily white backside. Twice. They can only dream of all of the knowledge I have collected that’s rolling around up there in my head. Plus… don’t those three-foot-long beards dip into the cocktails once and again?

    And Jeffrey… To add to that list of dives which serve a killer drink: Bar Tonique on Rampart Street in New Orleans. A bartenders bar for sure and a true delight!

  • Brock says:

    Thank you! I agree with the part about pretending it’s 1922 isn’t fun anymore. I’m so tired of seeing these hipster assholes with their waxed mustaches and vests that started bartending in the past three years. Great post.

  • Orlando McCray says:


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